General Affairs
Budget Session: How PM Modi sought to demolish 7 charges of Opposition
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The Opposition has been attacking Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling BJP in Parliament and outside it over issues like demonetisation, surgical strikes, black money and even RSS' role in freedom movement. The Opposition, particularly Congress, has been raising these issues in their campaign during the ongoing Assembly elections in five states.
PM Modi chose to reply to them and more on Tuesday. In his reply to the Motion of Thanks on President Pranab Mukherjee's address, PM Modi sought to reject the charges of Opposition on these issues.
Speaking in the Lok Sabha, PM Narendra Modi chose each subject to try and turn the table on the Opposition.
1. Demonetisation
Prime Minister Narendra Modi reiterated that demonetisation was the need of the hour. While the Opposition had said there was no need for the demonetisation move as the country's economy was sound, PM Modi said this was the reason why it was initiated.
"Any doctor performs surgery when a person's health condition is stable. Hence, demonetisation was launched at a time when the country's economic condition was stable," he said.
Talking on the innumerable changes brought about in the demonetisation rules, he said even the Congress-led UPA government had brought about changes 1035 times in its flagship programme MNREGA.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the changes were brought about to preempt those who were trying to bypass the demonetisation initiative and exploit the shortcomings.
"We do not see everything through the prism of elections, the interests of the nation are supreme for us," PM Modi said in Lok Sabha.
2. Budget
On the Opposition's objection to the advancement of Budget presentation from the customary February 28 to February 1, he said the practice was not suited for the country's condition. He said by the time the Budget is passed in May, monsoons arrive and the allocations are not spent for the next three months.
Modi said from December to March every year, expenditure is shown to be spent in a haphazard manner. Hence, February 1 was more suitable for the presentation of Budget.
He said for several years after Independence, Budget was presented at 5 pm because it suited the Britishers. The time was advanced to 11 am by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government.
3. Railway Budget
Talking on the merger of Railway Budget with the main Budget, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said even this practice was started by the Britishers because Railways was the main mode of transportation in those days. However, nowadays several modes were existing at present.
4. RSS' role in freedom movement
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for the first time perhaps, replied to the Congress' allegation that BJP's parent organization RSS did not play any role in the freedom movement. He said there were many people like me, who could not die for the nation during the freedom struggle but all are living for India and serving India.
Taking a dig at Congress' Nehru-Gandhis, he said they think only one family fought for the country's independence. "They do not make one realise that even freedom fighters like Bhagat Singh and Chandra Shekhar Azad existed," he said.
5. Surgical strikes
Seeking to reply to those who questioned the surgical strikes carried out by the Indian Army against terror launch pads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir on September 29, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the Opposition questioned it initially. But now none was questioning it like they do about demonetisation.
Modi said people had to change their tome and tenor because of the mood of the nation. He asked people not to question the capability of the armed forces.
6. Swachh Bharat Abhiyan
Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed surprise at the alleged politicization of NDA government's flagship Swachh Bharat Abhiyan. He said cleanliness concerned everyone and there should not be any politics over it. "Why can't we work together on ushering a Swachh Bharat?" he said.
7. Black Money
Replying to the Opposition's charge that the Narendra Modi government had failed to being black money stashed in foreign banks back to the country, the PM counted some of the alleged corruption cases leveled against the previous Manmohan Singh government.
Recounting 2G spectrum, coal block allocation and other corruption cases, PM Modi said earlier the BJP, which was in the Opposition, would talk about the amount of money which was lost by way of such scams. "However, now the Opposition was asking the government to disclose the amount which has come to the economic mainstream," he said, referring to the amount deposited in the banks after demonetisation drive.
The Opposition has been attacking Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling BJP in Parliament and outside it over issues like demonetisation, surgical strikes, black money and even RSS' role in freedom movement. The Opposition, particularly Congress, has been raising these issues in their campaign during the ongoing Assembly elections in five states.
PM Modi chose to reply to them and more on Tuesday. In his reply to the Motion of Thanks on President Pranab Mukherjee's address, PM Modi sought to reject the charges of Opposition on these issues.
Speaking in the Lok Sabha, PM Narendra Modi chose each subject to try and turn the table on the Opposition.
1. Demonetisation
Prime Minister Narendra Modi reiterated that demonetisation was the need of the hour. While the Opposition had said there was no need for the demonetisation move as the country's economy was sound, PM Modi said this was the reason why it was initiated.
"Any doctor performs surgery when a person's health condition is stable. Hence, demonetisation was launched at a time when the country's economic condition was stable," he said.
Talking on the innumerable changes brought about in the demonetisation rules, he said even the Congress-led UPA government had brought about changes 1035 times in its flagship programme MNREGA.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the changes were brought about to preempt those who were trying to bypass the demonetisation initiative and exploit the shortcomings.
"We do not see everything through the prism of elections, the interests of the nation are supreme for us," PM Modi said in Lok Sabha.
2. Budget
On the Opposition's objection to the advancement of Budget presentation from the customary February 28 to February 1, he said the practice was not suited for the country's condition. He said by the time the Budget is passed in May, monsoons arrive and the allocations are not spent for the next three months.
Modi said from December to March every year, expenditure is shown to be spent in a haphazard manner. Hence, February 1 was more suitable for the presentation of Budget.
He said for several years after Independence, Budget was presented at 5 pm because it suited the Britishers. The time was advanced to 11 am by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government.
3. Railway Budget
Talking on the merger of Railway Budget with the main Budget, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said even this practice was started by the Britishers because Railways was the main mode of transportation in those days. However, nowadays several modes were existing at present.
4. RSS' role in freedom movement
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for the first time perhaps, replied to the Congress' allegation that BJP's parent organization RSS did not play any role in the freedom movement. He said there were many people like me, who could not die for the nation during the freedom struggle but all are living for India and serving India.
Taking a dig at Congress' Nehru-Gandhis, he said they think only one family fought for the country's independence. "They do not make one realise that even freedom fighters like Bhagat Singh and Chandra Shekhar Azad existed," he said.
5. Surgical strikes
Seeking to reply to those who questioned the surgical strikes carried out by the Indian Army against terror launch pads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir on September 29, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the Opposition questioned it initially. But now none was questioning it like they do about demonetisation.
Modi said people had to change their tome and tenor because of the mood of the nation. He asked people not to question the capability of the armed forces.
6. Swachh Bharat Abhiyan
Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed surprise at the alleged politicization of NDA government's flagship Swachh Bharat Abhiyan. He said cleanliness concerned everyone and there should not be any politics over it. "Why can't we work together on ushering a Swachh Bharat?" he said.
7. Black Money
Replying to the Opposition's charge that the Narendra Modi government had failed to being black money stashed in foreign banks back to the country, the PM counted some of the alleged corruption cases leveled against the previous Manmohan Singh government.
Recounting 2G spectrum, coal block allocation and other corruption cases, PM Modi said earlier the BJP, which was in the Opposition, would talk about the amount of money which was lost by way of such scams. "However, now the Opposition was asking the government to disclose the amount which has come to the economic mainstream," he said, referring to the amount deposited in the banks after demonetisation drive.
Google maps to be used to measure destruction of wetlands in Mumbai
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The Bombay High Court on Tuesday ordered the petitioners, who have been fighting to save the wetlands of Mumbai, to obtain the Google maps of the same in and around the city.
"So that court can compare and see how much destruction has taken place," said Justice VM Kanade while adding "I have no doubt that there is encroachment on wetland. So the only thing to be done is to prevent and restore these places. Mira Bhayander, Uthan Panvel are the areas where we have to take steps so that wetlands do not vanish."
Advocate Ganesh Hegde, representing CIDCO, however, pointed out that due to the strong wetland protection rules, development projects like the construction of new airport in Navi Mumbai were getting stuck and so "a small window should be kept open for government agencies to carry on their projects."
Justice Kanade at this remarked, "We have always reiterated that public utilities have the permission and this has been said time and again." He added that there also has to be a mechanism to find out areas where mangroves can be grown and transferred from where they have been removed.
The petitioners in the case pointed out that installation of toll free numbers for people to call and complaint about destruction of waste land has not been done which takes about a month for installing when undertaken by the government.
ILLEGAL CONSTRUCTIONS
The petition has been filed by Vanashakti Public Trust with the grievance that there was lack of action against unscrupulous builders who were illegally dumping debris on wetlands and mangrove areas and putting up illegal constructions in flagrant violation of the rules and provisions of the Environment Protection Act, 1986.
The Maharashtra government has tendered a brief document on the wetlands within the forest area. However, a brief document on the wetlands outside the forest area will now have to be submitted by the government within four weeks.
The Bombay High Court on Tuesday ordered the petitioners, who have been fighting to save the wetlands of Mumbai, to obtain the Google maps of the same in and around the city.
"So that court can compare and see how much destruction has taken place," said Justice VM Kanade while adding "I have no doubt that there is encroachment on wetland. So the only thing to be done is to prevent and restore these places. Mira Bhayander, Uthan Panvel are the areas where we have to take steps so that wetlands do not vanish."
Advocate Ganesh Hegde, representing CIDCO, however, pointed out that due to the strong wetland protection rules, development projects like the construction of new airport in Navi Mumbai were getting stuck and so "a small window should be kept open for government agencies to carry on their projects."
Justice Kanade at this remarked, "We have always reiterated that public utilities have the permission and this has been said time and again." He added that there also has to be a mechanism to find out areas where mangroves can be grown and transferred from where they have been removed.
The petitioners in the case pointed out that installation of toll free numbers for people to call and complaint about destruction of waste land has not been done which takes about a month for installing when undertaken by the government.
ILLEGAL CONSTRUCTIONS
The petition has been filed by Vanashakti Public Trust with the grievance that there was lack of action against unscrupulous builders who were illegally dumping debris on wetlands and mangrove areas and putting up illegal constructions in flagrant violation of the rules and provisions of the Environment Protection Act, 1986.
The Maharashtra government has tendered a brief document on the wetlands within the forest area. However, a brief document on the wetlands outside the forest area will now have to be submitted by the government within four weeks.
Junior ranks of paramilitary forces resigned to fate of 'voluntary retirement'
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Constable Tej Bahadur who uploaded the Facebook video which went viral alleging ill treatment and poor quality of food became face of "problems" faced by soldiers in Central Armed Police Forces, also known as the paramilitary forces. Bahadur had uploaded several videos after seeking voluntary retirement. Though his VRS has been put on hold by BSF pending inquiry. The CAPF are besieged by VRS and resignation by subordinate officers and junior ranks, a big worry for forces and Ministry of Home Affairs.
In the last three years, nearly 20,000 CAPF personnel have resigned from six forces: CRPF, BSF, ITBP, SSB, CISF and Assam Rifles. In the beginning of the year, there have already been 37 resignations in soldier ranks, 25 in subordinate officers and 4 resignations in gazetted officers' ranks.
The trend is more towards voluntary retirement than resignation. But topping VRS is CRPF leading with nearly 6000 VRS in three years, while nearly 1200 have resigned, followed by BSF, with nearly 5700 VRS and 1200 resignations. In 2016 alone, while 7415 soldiers took VRS or resigned, it was 1400 for subordinate officers and 151 for gazetted officers.
In forces, the maximum number has been from junior ranks with total number of men leaving the force.
MHA said that in 2009 studies were conducted by BPR&D into factors of stress and remedial measures and another study through IIM- Ahmedabad in 2012 only for BSF and CRPF.
No specific study has been ascertained for the reasons for voluntary retirement and resignation by personnel, but the report list out reasons from domestic reasons including children/family issues, health/ illness of self or family, social and family obligations.
MHA also says that some personnel also seek VRS to enjoy a static life as well as penionsary benefits after 20 years of service. But, it seems the neither the Central government nor Forces have been able to keep a pulse on the problem of the soldiers. Though government lists out elaborate number of measures taken to improve living conditions of its forces. Some of the measures include adequate relief and rest, family accommodation, yoga, promotion and scholarship.
With foot soldiers walking away from the forces, there seems to be a worry that Government has not been able to placate the soldiers. Since 2004, soldiers do not get pension or other benefits, unlike military which has won the war of One Rank One Pension (OROP) besides enjoying slew of perks including higher salary compared to soldiers of CAPF.
Constable Tej Bahadur who uploaded the Facebook video which went viral alleging ill treatment and poor quality of food became face of "problems" faced by soldiers in Central Armed Police Forces, also known as the paramilitary forces. Bahadur had uploaded several videos after seeking voluntary retirement. Though his VRS has been put on hold by BSF pending inquiry. The CAPF are besieged by VRS and resignation by subordinate officers and junior ranks, a big worry for forces and Ministry of Home Affairs.
In the last three years, nearly 20,000 CAPF personnel have resigned from six forces: CRPF, BSF, ITBP, SSB, CISF and Assam Rifles. In the beginning of the year, there have already been 37 resignations in soldier ranks, 25 in subordinate officers and 4 resignations in gazetted officers' ranks.
The trend is more towards voluntary retirement than resignation. But topping VRS is CRPF leading with nearly 6000 VRS in three years, while nearly 1200 have resigned, followed by BSF, with nearly 5700 VRS and 1200 resignations. In 2016 alone, while 7415 soldiers took VRS or resigned, it was 1400 for subordinate officers and 151 for gazetted officers.
In forces, the maximum number has been from junior ranks with total number of men leaving the force.
MHA said that in 2009 studies were conducted by BPR&D into factors of stress and remedial measures and another study through IIM- Ahmedabad in 2012 only for BSF and CRPF.
No specific study has been ascertained for the reasons for voluntary retirement and resignation by personnel, but the report list out reasons from domestic reasons including children/family issues, health/ illness of self or family, social and family obligations.
MHA also says that some personnel also seek VRS to enjoy a static life as well as penionsary benefits after 20 years of service. But, it seems the neither the Central government nor Forces have been able to keep a pulse on the problem of the soldiers. Though government lists out elaborate number of measures taken to improve living conditions of its forces. Some of the measures include adequate relief and rest, family accommodation, yoga, promotion and scholarship.
With foot soldiers walking away from the forces, there seems to be a worry that Government has not been able to placate the soldiers. Since 2004, soldiers do not get pension or other benefits, unlike military which has won the war of One Rank One Pension (OROP) besides enjoying slew of perks including higher salary compared to soldiers of CAPF.
Devastating earthquake bigger than 2015 Nepal tremor may hit north India soon, warn experts
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A 5.8 magnitude earthquake rattled Uttarakhand on Monday (February 6) evening sending tremors all across north India, including Delhi and its adjoining areas, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab. Luckily, no damage to life or property was reported from Uttarakhand or other parts of north India rattled by the quake epicentered 31km below the earth surface in Pipalkoti near Rudraprayag.
Uttarakhand and the northern Himalayan region have witnessed several high and medium intensity tremors in the recent past. Nepal was devastated by a magnitude 7.9 quake on April 25, 2015. However, experts have warned of a catastrophic earthquake in north India in near future. Several reports based on study of movement of techtonic plates have pointed out that a catastrophic earthquake could hit Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and other parts of north India in years to come.
Scientists of Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (WIHG) said that the big one could come sooner than expected. Dr Sushil Kumar, senior scientist at WIHG, explained the Indian Plate is moving towards the Eurasian Plate at the speed of 45CM/year causing immense pressure under the earth surface in the region, a report in Jagran said.
The Himalayan region has had four major earthquakes in the past 150 years. According to geologists, the regions between Kangra and Nepal-Bihar did not experience any earthquake for a long time till the April 25, 2015 earthquake. The region was the "maximum probable zone" for an earthquake. The Himalayas had experienced three great quakes during the past century - Nepal-Bihar (1934), upper Assam (in 1950) and Kangra, Himachal Pradesh (1905).
HOW THE HIMALAYAN RANGE WAS CREATED
The earth's landmasses ride like gigantic rafts on "plates", or sections of the earth's outermost layer, the crust. These plates frequently slip and slide, causing earthquakes. We don't feel the small ones. The big ones, literally, shake us up.
The Himalayas and north India are on particularly shaky ground. Sometime in the geological past, before humans, India broke off from an ancient supercontinent called Gondwana, a name still used for what is now Chhattisgarh.
The Indian plate skewed north, displaced an ancient sea, travelled more than 2,000 km - the fastest a plate has ever moved - and slammed into the Eurasian plate, creating the Himalayas.
About 60 per cent of India is vulnerable to earthquakes caused by the great, northward grind of the Indian subcontinental landmass.
according to geologists, the 1950 Assam earthquake may have geologically set the stage for a really big one in the Himalayas. Now that 65 years have passed, it may be time for a big one.
A 5.8 magnitude earthquake rattled Uttarakhand on Monday (February 6) evening sending tremors all across north India, including Delhi and its adjoining areas, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab. Luckily, no damage to life or property was reported from Uttarakhand or other parts of north India rattled by the quake epicentered 31km below the earth surface in Pipalkoti near Rudraprayag.
Uttarakhand and the northern Himalayan region have witnessed several high and medium intensity tremors in the recent past. Nepal was devastated by a magnitude 7.9 quake on April 25, 2015. However, experts have warned of a catastrophic earthquake in north India in near future. Several reports based on study of movement of techtonic plates have pointed out that a catastrophic earthquake could hit Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and other parts of north India in years to come.
Scientists of Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (WIHG) said that the big one could come sooner than expected. Dr Sushil Kumar, senior scientist at WIHG, explained the Indian Plate is moving towards the Eurasian Plate at the speed of 45CM/year causing immense pressure under the earth surface in the region, a report in Jagran said.
The Himalayan region has had four major earthquakes in the past 150 years. According to geologists, the regions between Kangra and Nepal-Bihar did not experience any earthquake for a long time till the April 25, 2015 earthquake. The region was the "maximum probable zone" for an earthquake. The Himalayas had experienced three great quakes during the past century - Nepal-Bihar (1934), upper Assam (in 1950) and Kangra, Himachal Pradesh (1905).
HOW THE HIMALAYAN RANGE WAS CREATED
The earth's landmasses ride like gigantic rafts on "plates", or sections of the earth's outermost layer, the crust. These plates frequently slip and slide, causing earthquakes. We don't feel the small ones. The big ones, literally, shake us up.
The Himalayas and north India are on particularly shaky ground. Sometime in the geological past, before humans, India broke off from an ancient supercontinent called Gondwana, a name still used for what is now Chhattisgarh.
The Indian plate skewed north, displaced an ancient sea, travelled more than 2,000 km - the fastest a plate has ever moved - and slammed into the Eurasian plate, creating the Himalayas.
About 60 per cent of India is vulnerable to earthquakes caused by the great, northward grind of the Indian subcontinental landmass.
according to geologists, the 1950 Assam earthquake may have geologically set the stage for a really big one in the Himalayas. Now that 65 years have passed, it may be time for a big one.
Nobel prize of Indian peace laureate Kailash Satyarthi stolen from his Delhi flat
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Nobel Peace Prize winner Kailash Satyarthi's south Delhi house was broken into late last night, from where the certificate of his Nobel Prize was stolen, among other things.
Satyarthi was not in his Alaknanda flat when the robbery took place. He is currently in the US.
Satyarthi's original Nobel medallion is kept in Rashtrapati Bhavan since he dedicated his award to the country,.
Satyarthi's son Bhuvan Ribhu, who is a senior Supreme Court lawyer, filed a police complaint today morning after he found the front gates of Satyarthi's house broken.
An FIR under Section 380 (house theft) of the IPC has been filed. Police has initiated an investigation based on fingerprints lifted from the scene.
Kailash Satyarthi, a children's rights and education activist and the founder of the Bachpan Bachao Andolan won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2014, which he shared with Pakistan's Malala Yousafzai.
Through his organization Bachpan Bachao Andolan, Satyarthi has freed over 80,000 children from various forms of servitude and helped in successful rehabilitation.
Kailash, who was born in Vidisha in Madhya Pradesh, has a degree in electrical engineering and a post-graduate diploma in high-voltage engineering.
This wouldn't be the first stolen Nobel prize in Indian history, Rabindranath Tagore's Nobel prize was stolen from the Visva Bharati University museum in March 2004. It was never recovered.
Nobel Peace Prize winner Kailash Satyarthi's south Delhi house was broken into late last night, from where the certificate of his Nobel Prize was stolen, among other things.
Satyarthi was not in his Alaknanda flat when the robbery took place. He is currently in the US.
Satyarthi's original Nobel medallion is kept in Rashtrapati Bhavan since he dedicated his award to the country,.
Satyarthi's son Bhuvan Ribhu, who is a senior Supreme Court lawyer, filed a police complaint today morning after he found the front gates of Satyarthi's house broken.
An FIR under Section 380 (house theft) of the IPC has been filed. Police has initiated an investigation based on fingerprints lifted from the scene.
Kailash Satyarthi, a children's rights and education activist and the founder of the Bachpan Bachao Andolan won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2014, which he shared with Pakistan's Malala Yousafzai.
Through his organization Bachpan Bachao Andolan, Satyarthi has freed over 80,000 children from various forms of servitude and helped in successful rehabilitation.
Kailash, who was born in Vidisha in Madhya Pradesh, has a degree in electrical engineering and a post-graduate diploma in high-voltage engineering.
This wouldn't be the first stolen Nobel prize in Indian history, Rabindranath Tagore's Nobel prize was stolen from the Visva Bharati University museum in March 2004. It was never recovered.
Business Affairs
RBI monetary policy meet tomorrow. What could go against a cut in repo rate
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The market, experts and research houses are all expecting a 25 basis points cut in the repo rate - at 6.25 per cent currently - in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy on Wednesday. The assumption is based on the fact that retail inflation has eased considerably since the last policy in December, 2016.
While it is true that a rate cut would boost consumption, given the impact of demonetisation on growth, also looming large are clouds of uncertainty. Here are five factors that come in the way of an easing of the interest rate cycle at this juncture.
1) Firming Oil Prices
After crashing from $100 a barrel in January 2014 to below $30 in January 2016, crude is now settling at $53-55 a barrel, which is not good news for India and the world. It could have an inflationary impact on the global economy. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC) is also cutting production, although marginally, adding to speculation about crude prices firming up. Some analysts are predicting crude will stabilise at around $ 60 a barrel because of supply shortages. It could push inflation up in the domestic market.
2) US is 'Back To Normal'
The world's largest economy, United States, is back to normal in terms of monetary policy. Between 2008 to 2015, the US saw near zero short term interest rates with the government pumping in over $12 trillion by way of quantitative easing (buying bond papers in exchange for dollars) in an $18 trillion economy. The current interest rates, at 0.75 per cent, are now inching up. There are expectations of a few hikes in 2017. This doesn't augur well for emerging market economies like India as there would be outflow of dollar funds back to the US. Newly minted US President Donald Trump, known to be pro-industry, also promises to infuse some firepower into the economy via trade protectionism and reduction of corporate tax. The dollar is already strengthening against the Indian rupee -- from 67 levels the rupee is expected to touch 70 this year. The weakening of rupee brings back the threat of imported inflation.
3) Higher Commodity Prices
In the commodity space, oil has clearly bottomed out. There are expectations of metal and mineral prices surging in 2017. And if that happens, domestic inflation would get impacted. Demand from China would also play a role.
4)Inflation Slides, A Fallout of Demonetisation
The consumer price index ( CPI) or retail inflation fell from 2.59 per cent in November to 2.23 per cent in December. It could fall some more in January. The CPI is in the comfort zone of RBI. The target was 5 per cent in 2016/17. The medium term target of 4 per cent ( +-2 per cent ) also looks achievable if the downward journey continues. But these numbers should seen be from the lens of the demonetisation exercise , which punctured demand in the country. This short term transitory impact on inflation will go away once the economy gets adequate new currency in hand. In fact, the remonetisation till January 21 was to the tune of Rs 9 lakh crore against the demonetised currency of Rs 15 lakh crore. So, the impact on inflation was logical.
5) Slow Transmission Of Rates
The transmission of policy rates (almost 175 basis point cut in repo rate ) to actual lending rates since January 2015 hasn't taken place as banks are a bit reluctant to pass on the benefit to end consumer. They often cite slow growth in deposits and protection of margins, given the deteriorating asset quality, as the reasons for slow transmission. Any cut now in policy rates won't result in any big cuts in the lending rates. Many banks have already reduced interest rates recently because of the surplus deposits post demonetisation, which also resulted in them paring interest rates on fixed and bulk deposits.
The market, experts and research houses are all expecting a 25 basis points cut in the repo rate - at 6.25 per cent currently - in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy on Wednesday. The assumption is based on the fact that retail inflation has eased considerably since the last policy in December, 2016.
While it is true that a rate cut would boost consumption, given the impact of demonetisation on growth, also looming large are clouds of uncertainty. Here are five factors that come in the way of an easing of the interest rate cycle at this juncture.
1) Firming Oil Prices
After crashing from $100 a barrel in January 2014 to below $30 in January 2016, crude is now settling at $53-55 a barrel, which is not good news for India and the world. It could have an inflationary impact on the global economy. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC) is also cutting production, although marginally, adding to speculation about crude prices firming up. Some analysts are predicting crude will stabilise at around $ 60 a barrel because of supply shortages. It could push inflation up in the domestic market.
2) US is 'Back To Normal'
The world's largest economy, United States, is back to normal in terms of monetary policy. Between 2008 to 2015, the US saw near zero short term interest rates with the government pumping in over $12 trillion by way of quantitative easing (buying bond papers in exchange for dollars) in an $18 trillion economy. The current interest rates, at 0.75 per cent, are now inching up. There are expectations of a few hikes in 2017. This doesn't augur well for emerging market economies like India as there would be outflow of dollar funds back to the US. Newly minted US President Donald Trump, known to be pro-industry, also promises to infuse some firepower into the economy via trade protectionism and reduction of corporate tax. The dollar is already strengthening against the Indian rupee -- from 67 levels the rupee is expected to touch 70 this year. The weakening of rupee brings back the threat of imported inflation.
3) Higher Commodity Prices
In the commodity space, oil has clearly bottomed out. There are expectations of metal and mineral prices surging in 2017. And if that happens, domestic inflation would get impacted. Demand from China would also play a role.
4)Inflation Slides, A Fallout of Demonetisation
The consumer price index ( CPI) or retail inflation fell from 2.59 per cent in November to 2.23 per cent in December. It could fall some more in January. The CPI is in the comfort zone of RBI. The target was 5 per cent in 2016/17. The medium term target of 4 per cent ( +-2 per cent ) also looks achievable if the downward journey continues. But these numbers should seen be from the lens of the demonetisation exercise , which punctured demand in the country. This short term transitory impact on inflation will go away once the economy gets adequate new currency in hand. In fact, the remonetisation till January 21 was to the tune of Rs 9 lakh crore against the demonetised currency of Rs 15 lakh crore. So, the impact on inflation was logical.
5) Slow Transmission Of Rates
The transmission of policy rates (almost 175 basis point cut in repo rate ) to actual lending rates since January 2015 hasn't taken place as banks are a bit reluctant to pass on the benefit to end consumer. They often cite slow growth in deposits and protection of margins, given the deteriorating asset quality, as the reasons for slow transmission. Any cut now in policy rates won't result in any big cuts in the lending rates. Many banks have already reduced interest rates recently because of the surplus deposits post demonetisation, which also resulted in them paring interest rates on fixed and bulk deposits.
1) Firming Oil Prices
After crashing from $100 a barrel in January 2014 to below $30 in January 2016, crude is now settling at $53-55 a barrel, which is not good news for India and the world. It could have an inflationary impact on the global economy. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC) is also cutting production, although marginally, adding to speculation about crude prices firming up. Some analysts are predicting crude will stabilise at around $ 60 a barrel because of supply shortages. It could push inflation up in the domestic market.
2) US is 'Back To Normal'
The world's largest economy, United States, is back to normal in terms of monetary policy. Between 2008 to 2015, the US saw near zero short term interest rates with the government pumping in over $12 trillion by way of quantitative easing (buying bond papers in exchange for dollars) in an $18 trillion economy. The current interest rates, at 0.75 per cent, are now inching up. There are expectations of a few hikes in 2017. This doesn't augur well for emerging market economies like India as there would be outflow of dollar funds back to the US. Newly minted US President Donald Trump, known to be pro-industry, also promises to infuse some firepower into the economy via trade protectionism and reduction of corporate tax. The dollar is already strengthening against the Indian rupee -- from 67 levels the rupee is expected to touch 70 this year. The weakening of rupee brings back the threat of imported inflation.
3) Higher Commodity Prices
In the commodity space, oil has clearly bottomed out. There are expectations of metal and mineral prices surging in 2017. And if that happens, domestic inflation would get impacted. Demand from China would also play a role.
4)Inflation Slides, A Fallout of Demonetisation
The consumer price index ( CPI) or retail inflation fell from 2.59 per cent in November to 2.23 per cent in December. It could fall some more in January. The CPI is in the comfort zone of RBI. The target was 5 per cent in 2016/17. The medium term target of 4 per cent ( +-2 per cent ) also looks achievable if the downward journey continues. But these numbers should seen be from the lens of the demonetisation exercise , which punctured demand in the country. This short term transitory impact on inflation will go away once the economy gets adequate new currency in hand. In fact, the remonetisation till January 21 was to the tune of Rs 9 lakh crore against the demonetised currency of Rs 15 lakh crore. So, the impact on inflation was logical.
5) Slow Transmission Of Rates
The transmission of policy rates (almost 175 basis point cut in repo rate ) to actual lending rates since January 2015 hasn't taken place as banks are a bit reluctant to pass on the benefit to end consumer. They often cite slow growth in deposits and protection of margins, given the deteriorating asset quality, as the reasons for slow transmission. Any cut now in policy rates won't result in any big cuts in the lending rates. Many banks have already reduced interest rates recently because of the surplus deposits post demonetisation, which also resulted in them paring interest rates on fixed and bulk deposits.
PNB Q3 profit jumps over 4-fold to Rs 207 crore
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Punjab National Bank (PNB) today reported over four-fold jump in net profit to Rs 207.18 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, 2016-17, on account of lower provisioning.
PNB had reported net profit of Rs 51.1 crore for the October-December quarter of the 2015-16 fiscal.
The public sector lender's total income increased 4.36 per cent to Rs 14,497.65 crore for the quarter under review, from Rs 13,891.2 crore in the year-ago period.
Its gross non-performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans, as a percentage to total advances, rose to 13.70 per cent from 8.47 per cent in the same quarter of last fiscal.
Net NPAs went up to 9.09 per cent from 5.86 per cent at the end of December 2015, the bank said.
Total provisions, excluding tax, made during the third quarter of 2016-17 stood at Rs 2,935.86 crore as against Rs 3,775.53 crore in the year-ago period, down 22.23 per cent.
Reacting to the bank's quarterly numbers, PNB's shares were trading 2.44 per cent higher to Rs 153.30 on BSE.
Punjab National Bank (PNB) today reported over four-fold jump in net profit to Rs 207.18 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, 2016-17, on account of lower provisioning.
PNB had reported net profit of Rs 51.1 crore for the October-December quarter of the 2015-16 fiscal.
The public sector lender's total income increased 4.36 per cent to Rs 14,497.65 crore for the quarter under review, from Rs 13,891.2 crore in the year-ago period.
Its gross non-performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans, as a percentage to total advances, rose to 13.70 per cent from 8.47 per cent in the same quarter of last fiscal.
Net NPAs went up to 9.09 per cent from 5.86 per cent at the end of December 2015, the bank said.
Total provisions, excluding tax, made during the third quarter of 2016-17 stood at Rs 2,935.86 crore as against Rs 3,775.53 crore in the year-ago period, down 22.23 per cent.
Reacting to the bank's quarterly numbers, PNB's shares were trading 2.44 per cent higher to Rs 153.30 on BSE.
"Indian economy projected to overtake US by 2040"
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The global economic order is expected to shift from advanced to emerging economies over the next few decades, and by 2040 India could edge past the US to become the world's second largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, says a report.
According to PwC, E7 economies comprising Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey would grow at an annual average rate of almost 3.5 per cent over the next 34 years, compared to just 1.6 per cent for the advanced G7 nations of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US.
"In fact, China has already overtaken the US to become the world's largest economy in PPP terms, while India currently stands in third place and is projected to overtake the US by 2040 in PPP terms," PwC said.
Moreover, PwC believes Vietnam, India and Bangladesh would be three of the world's fastest growing economies over this period.
"We will continue to see shift in global economic power away from established advanced economies towards emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere. The E7 could comprise almost 50 per cent of world GDP by 2050, while the G7's share declines to only just over 20 per cent," PwC Chief Economist and co-author of the report John Hawksworth said.
Deepankar Sanwalka, Leader- Advisory, PwC India said "this shift in global economic power to emerging economies is one of the most relevant and pronounced megatrends for India".
Sanwalka further said: "The confidence of Indian CEOs about their company's prospects and the kind of new business opportunities we see in India today is a testimonial of that trend".
However, to realise this growth potential, emerging market governments need to implement structural reforms to improve macroeconomic stability, diversify their economies away from undue reliance on natural resources (where this is currently the case), and develop more effective political and legal institutions.
"Policymakers across the world face a number of challenges if they are to achieve sustainable long-term economic growth of the kind we project in this report," Hawksworth said.
He noted that "falling global trade growth, rising income inequality within many countries and increasing global geopolitical uncertainties are intensifying the need to create diversified economies which create opportunities for everyone in a broad variety of industries."
The global economic order is expected to shift from advanced to emerging economies over the next few decades, and by 2040 India could edge past the US to become the world's second largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, says a report.
According to PwC, E7 economies comprising Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey would grow at an annual average rate of almost 3.5 per cent over the next 34 years, compared to just 1.6 per cent for the advanced G7 nations of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US.
"In fact, China has already overtaken the US to become the world's largest economy in PPP terms, while India currently stands in third place and is projected to overtake the US by 2040 in PPP terms," PwC said.
Moreover, PwC believes Vietnam, India and Bangladesh would be three of the world's fastest growing economies over this period.
"We will continue to see shift in global economic power away from established advanced economies towards emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere. The E7 could comprise almost 50 per cent of world GDP by 2050, while the G7's share declines to only just over 20 per cent," PwC Chief Economist and co-author of the report John Hawksworth said.
Deepankar Sanwalka, Leader- Advisory, PwC India said "this shift in global economic power to emerging economies is one of the most relevant and pronounced megatrends for India".
Sanwalka further said: "The confidence of Indian CEOs about their company's prospects and the kind of new business opportunities we see in India today is a testimonial of that trend".
However, to realise this growth potential, emerging market governments need to implement structural reforms to improve macroeconomic stability, diversify their economies away from undue reliance on natural resources (where this is currently the case), and develop more effective political and legal institutions.
"Policymakers across the world face a number of challenges if they are to achieve sustainable long-term economic growth of the kind we project in this report," Hawksworth said.
He noted that "falling global trade growth, rising income inequality within many countries and increasing global geopolitical uncertainties are intensifying the need to create diversified economies which create opportunities for everyone in a broad variety of industries."
PM Modi defends frequent rule changes during demonetisation
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi today defended the frequent rule changes during demonetisation saying the government was fighting corrupt people who were finding new ways to hide black money.
The government took a dig at the opposition saying the Congress had made a total 1035 rule changes in the implementation of MNREGA as compared to over a hundred rule changes during demonetisation.
Standing by his decision to ban high value currency notes PM Modi said, "India's economy was doing well at the time of demonetisation, that is why the government took the decision."
The amount of business and trade that happens in the country around Diwali can be compared to the business done in the entire year and after Diwali there is a lull, this was kept in mind before the government took the decision of note-ban, PM said.
On the day our govt was formed, the first thing we did was to make SIT on black money. We signed agreements with tax havens to prevent money laundering, PM said.
Attacking the opposition for disrupting the Parliament after demonetisation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that his government was ready to discuss demonetisation but the opposition was only interested in giving TV bytes.
"No one can deny that corruption starts with cash, benami property and gold jewellery are all the by-product of it," PM said while emphasizing the need of less-cash economy.
Speaking on advancement of Budget date, PM said India is an agrarian economy where the disbursement of funds allocated in budget starts from May, and from June there is no work due to monsoon, so for three months we were not able to use the budget allocation.
When Rail budget was first presented, the transport sector was different. Now things are different and a more comprehensive look is needed, PM said on rail budget.
90 years ago, Railway was the only way of transportation, now the situation has changed and we have several mode of transportation. We are changing Railway. When we came to power, we analysed that there were 1500 announcements which were buried in papers only.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi today defended the frequent rule changes during demonetisation saying the government was fighting corrupt people who were finding new ways to hide black money.
The government took a dig at the opposition saying the Congress had made a total 1035 rule changes in the implementation of MNREGA as compared to over a hundred rule changes during demonetisation.
Standing by his decision to ban high value currency notes PM Modi said, "India's economy was doing well at the time of demonetisation, that is why the government took the decision."
The amount of business and trade that happens in the country around Diwali can be compared to the business done in the entire year and after Diwali there is a lull, this was kept in mind before the government took the decision of note-ban, PM said.
On the day our govt was formed, the first thing we did was to make SIT on black money. We signed agreements with tax havens to prevent money laundering, PM said.
Attacking the opposition for disrupting the Parliament after demonetisation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that his government was ready to discuss demonetisation but the opposition was only interested in giving TV bytes.
"No one can deny that corruption starts with cash, benami property and gold jewellery are all the by-product of it," PM said while emphasizing the need of less-cash economy.
Speaking on advancement of Budget date, PM said India is an agrarian economy where the disbursement of funds allocated in budget starts from May, and from June there is no work due to monsoon, so for three months we were not able to use the budget allocation.
When Rail budget was first presented, the transport sector was different. Now things are different and a more comprehensive look is needed, PM said on rail budget.
90 years ago, Railway was the only way of transportation, now the situation has changed and we have several mode of transportation. We are changing Railway. When we came to power, we analysed that there were 1500 announcements which were buried in papers only.
Mutual funds invested Rs 5,234 cr in stocks last month
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Mutual fund managers purchased stocks worth Rs 5,234 crore on net basis in January -- making it the sixth straight monthly inflow -- after retail investors continued to put money in equity schemes.
Besides, fund managers pumped in over Rs 31,000 crore in the debt market last month. According to the data released by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), mutual fund managers invested a net sum of Rs 5,234 crore last month. It followed an inflow of Rs 9,179 crore in December, Rs 13,775 crore in November, Rs 9,129 crore in October, Rs 3,841 crore in September and Rs 2,717 crore in August. Prior to that, fund managers had pulled out Rs 34 crore from the stock markets in July.
Fund managers have been putting in money in the stock market since August last year due to a sharp plunge in equities. They had pumped in over Rs 43,000 crore in stock markets during the period. Generally, fund managers step up their buying whenever equity markets undergo a sharp correction.
"Such inflows are possible only when retail investors have participated in large numbers by investing in equity funds, viewing the weakness as opportunity," said Vidya Bala Mutual Fund Research Head at FundsIndia.com. "In other words, retail investors have reposed faith.
Traditionally too, domestic investors have been net buyers when FPIs have sold and the same phenomenon is playing out now," she added. A mutual fund is an investment vehicle with a pool of funds collected from various investors to buy stocks, bonds, money market instruments and similar assets.
Mutual fund managers purchased stocks worth Rs 5,234 crore on net basis in January -- making it the sixth straight monthly inflow -- after retail investors continued to put money in equity schemes.
Besides, fund managers pumped in over Rs 31,000 crore in the debt market last month. According to the data released by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), mutual fund managers invested a net sum of Rs 5,234 crore last month. It followed an inflow of Rs 9,179 crore in December, Rs 13,775 crore in November, Rs 9,129 crore in October, Rs 3,841 crore in September and Rs 2,717 crore in August. Prior to that, fund managers had pulled out Rs 34 crore from the stock markets in July.
Fund managers have been putting in money in the stock market since August last year due to a sharp plunge in equities. They had pumped in over Rs 43,000 crore in stock markets during the period. Generally, fund managers step up their buying whenever equity markets undergo a sharp correction.
"Such inflows are possible only when retail investors have participated in large numbers by investing in equity funds, viewing the weakness as opportunity," said Vidya Bala Mutual Fund Research Head at FundsIndia.com. "In other words, retail investors have reposed faith.
Traditionally too, domestic investors have been net buyers when FPIs have sold and the same phenomenon is playing out now," she added. A mutual fund is an investment vehicle with a pool of funds collected from various investors to buy stocks, bonds, money market instruments and similar assets.
General Awareness
Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal Launches Chief Minister Samagra Gramya Unnayan Yojana (CMSGUY) in Assam
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Chief Minister of Assam, Sarbananda Sonowal, launched Chief Minister Samagra Gramya Unnayan Yojana (CMSGUY) in a function held at Sri Sri Madhavdev International Auditorium of Srimanta Sankardev Kalakshetra in Guwahati on February 5, 2017 with an aim to develop all the villages to Assam in the next five years.
Aim: The CMSGUY scheme aims to bring a revolutionary change in the state by doubling the farm income by 2022 which also marks the 75 anniversary of India’s Independence.
- The total financial outlay of the CMSGUY scheme is Rs. 30,000 crore. It will be implemented in phased manner in the villages of Assam till 2021-22.
About the CMSGUY Project
For the propoer implementation of the scheme a Mega Mission Society has been constituted under the chairmanship of Sarbananda Sonowal.
- As per the Situation Assessment Survey done during 2002-03 to 2012-13, the report estimated that the farm income in Assam was only 0.88 percent as against national average of 5.2 per cent.
- The CMSGUY scheme would be launched in a time bound manner. It would cover each village of the state for complete rural transformation though massive investment so as to enhance rural productivity.
- It would include focused interventions in direct economic activities, logistic support including market linkages, and community support.
- Under the 5-year scheme, five teams will be constituted in each block which will work as a base to implement different missions of the programme. These teams will prepare development plans for them to be implemented in each village.
- A village knowledge centre will also be set up in each village as a part of the scheme. Besides, MGNREGA play ground will be built in each village.
- Out of the total outlay of Rs. 30,000 crore of the project, Rs. 1.20 crore has been planned as average investment to be made on each revenue village of the state.
- In the Union Budget 2017-18, an initial amount of Rs. 500 crore has already been provided by the Finance Minister to Assam Chief Minister.
- Assam Minister has proposed Rs 1000 crore as a Supplementary Demand and by the end of the financial year 2017 the CMSGUY will have Rs 1500 crore.
About Assam
Assam is a state in northeastern India. It is one of the Seven Sister States of India that includes Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura. Assam shares an international border with Bhutan and Bangladesh.
- Assam is known for Assam tea and Assam silk. The first oil well in Asia was drilled in Assam.
- Capital: Dispur & Governor: Banwarilal Purohit
- Dance: Bihu & River: Brahmaputra
- Animal: One horned rhinoceros
Chief Minister of Assam, Sarbananda Sonowal, launched Chief Minister Samagra Gramya Unnayan Yojana (CMSGUY) in a function held at Sri Sri Madhavdev International Auditorium of Srimanta Sankardev Kalakshetra in Guwahati on February 5, 2017 with an aim to develop all the villages to Assam in the next five years.
Aim: The CMSGUY scheme aims to bring a revolutionary change in the state by doubling the farm income by 2022 which also marks the 75 anniversary of India’s Independence.
- The total financial outlay of the CMSGUY scheme is Rs. 30,000 crore. It will be implemented in phased manner in the villages of Assam till 2021-22.
About the CMSGUY Project
For the propoer implementation of the scheme a Mega Mission Society has been constituted under the chairmanship of Sarbananda Sonowal.
- As per the Situation Assessment Survey done during 2002-03 to 2012-13, the report estimated that the farm income in Assam was only 0.88 percent as against national average of 5.2 per cent.
- The CMSGUY scheme would be launched in a time bound manner. It would cover each village of the state for complete rural transformation though massive investment so as to enhance rural productivity.
- It would include focused interventions in direct economic activities, logistic support including market linkages, and community support.
- Under the 5-year scheme, five teams will be constituted in each block which will work as a base to implement different missions of the programme. These teams will prepare development plans for them to be implemented in each village.
- A village knowledge centre will also be set up in each village as a part of the scheme. Besides, MGNREGA play ground will be built in each village.
- Out of the total outlay of Rs. 30,000 crore of the project, Rs. 1.20 crore has been planned as average investment to be made on each revenue village of the state.
- In the Union Budget 2017-18, an initial amount of Rs. 500 crore has already been provided by the Finance Minister to Assam Chief Minister.
- Assam Minister has proposed Rs 1000 crore as a Supplementary Demand and by the end of the financial year 2017 the CMSGUY will have Rs 1500 crore.
About Assam
Assam is a state in northeastern India. It is one of the Seven Sister States of India that includes Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura. Assam shares an international border with Bhutan and Bangladesh.
- Assam is known for Assam tea and Assam silk. The first oil well in Asia was drilled in Assam.
- Capital: Dispur & Governor: Banwarilal Purohit
- Dance: Bihu & River: Brahmaputra
- Animal: One horned rhinoceros
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